Analytics
Yes is at 57.5%, up 8.5 points from 49% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 82 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 68.5% on 9 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 15 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46.5%; a month before, 37%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 59% on 15 Sep 2026.
8 is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?”, ahead of 7 at 21.9%.
$21.66 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $52.6K since listing. The order book holds $1.47K, with a 11.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.52K bought Yes and $2.7K bought No; the largest was a $1.62K buy of Yes at 37.7¢.
The largest Yes position is michi1 with 9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11.2K. Ten wallets hold 92.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 49.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 57.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.24K |
| michi1 | Yes | 9.04K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 743.23 |
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-tropical-cyclones-will-make-landfall-in-china-during-2026-20260805184236864
| Bertrame6868 | Yes | 631.94 |
| dsfd3 | Yes | 620 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 569.83 |
| kupoz | Yes | 470.56 |
| donthackme | Yes | 207.26 |
| w... | Yes | 200.48 |
| Bliss99131 | Yes | 192.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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