Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 74%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 115 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2025 to 22 Jan 2026, the highest close was 87% on 11 Jan 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 12 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 63% on 30 Nov 2025. $14.11K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 23, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 115 points, 1 Oct 2025 – 22 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 50.0% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 74.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Vector 50EF | No | 294 |
| Indigo Kestrel C1A2 | No | 143 |
| Bright Lynx 7B25 | No | 139 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-nominations
| No |
| 109.89 |
| Indigo Horizon 3C07 | No | 109 |
| Golden Beacon 00C8 | No | 105 |
| Lunar Meteor C6B7 | No | 76 |
| Crimson Lynx 65CB | No | 72 |
| Swift Vector 3DAB | No | 59 |
| deggene | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
