Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Apr 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89.5%. Yes opened at 75% on 28 Mar 2023. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2023 to 22 Apr 2023 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 96% on 19 Apr 2023 and the lowest 10.5% on 22 Apr 2023. Its largest one-day move was 74 points down, to 22.5% on 20 Apr 2023. $47.79K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 23, 10:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 28 Mar 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2023 | 75.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Colorful-Corporal | Yes | 1.16K |
| Questionable-Ancestor | Yes | 125.74 |
| Potable-Sibling | Yes | 91.07 |
| Keen Voyager 798C | Yes | 45.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if 1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade, the price of $ETH is at least 3% more than it was at the time of the upgrade. Otherwise the market will resolve to "No." "1 week after the Shanghai Upgrade" is defined by exactly 7 days (168 hours) after the Shanghai Upgrade. The Shanghai upgrade refers to the the hard fork implementing EIP-4895. If the Shanghai Upgrade does not occur by December 31, 2023, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, namely the 1 minute candle close prices which encapsulate the Shanghai Upgrade time and 1 week after.
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-eth-moon-after-shanghai
| therumi | Yes | 4.55 |
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