Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 2 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 20.5% on 2 Aug 2025 and the low 0.1% on 5 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 0.8% on 4 Aug 2025. $479.92K traded over the market's life.
136 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 6, 4:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 2 Aug 2025 – 5 Aug 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | 20.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 326.78K |
| KimbalMusk | Yes | 14.12K |
| Muskadelic | Yes | 10.77K |
| Mmorning1 | Yes | 8K |
| CookeMonster | Yes | 5K |
| dannyboy16 | Yes | 4.1K |
| Outissss | Yes | 2.72K |
| Daud11 | Yes | 2.5K |
| Doog | Yes | 2.37K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 2.25K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X between August 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and August 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts posts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the ‘Post Counter’ figure for posts found at https://www.xtracker.io/. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-1-8
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