Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 51% on 7 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 51% on 7 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 27.5% on 8 Jul 2025. $599.09K traded over the market's life.
155 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 6:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 7 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2025 | 51.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bink_7 | Yes | 20K |
| SM4RTAsS | Yes | 12.75K |
| gtoinvestment | Yes | 3.17K |
| michalpp23 | Yes | 3.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party named the “America Party” in the United States between July 5, 2025 and July 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets. Minor name variations that clearly refer to the same party—such as “American Party,” “The America Party,” or similar—will also qualify, provided credible reporting confirms the intent and connection to Musk.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-register-the-america-party-by
New to prediction markets?
| ppp666 | Yes | 2.97K |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 2.69K |
| Morten | Yes | 2.31K |
| Fudfarm | Yes | 1.25K |
| benniestyles | Yes | 1.18K |
| IronGirl12 | Yes | 940.14 |
