Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 26 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 5 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 26 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 50% on 4 Oct 2026. $1.14K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 6, 6:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 12.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between September 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for 'hello'), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-elon-post-this-week-september-28-october-4
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