Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 65% on 6 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 381 daily closes on record from 6 Feb 2025 to 20 Feb 2026, the highest close was 65% on 6 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 14 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 29.5% on 7 Feb 2025. $202.62K traded over the market's life.
150 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 22, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 381 points, 6 Feb 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2025 | 65.0% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 1.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Keen Oracle 60E1 | Yes | 3.63K |
| Amber Maven 1D51 | Yes | 2.44K |
| Swift Vector 2E79 | Yes | 1.74K |
In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-elon-cut-the-budget-by-at-least-5-in-2025
| PipiR | Yes | 1.72K |
| brusselsprout | Yes | 1.25K |
| Keen Sphinx 7BEF | Yes | 1.01K |
| Echelonprt | Yes | 1K |
| Crimson Ledger 530F | Yes | 690.05 |
| Crimson Pulse 5220 | Yes | 617.32 |
| Customluger | Yes | 555.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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