Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 49% on 6 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 381 daily closes on record from 6 Feb 2025 to 20 Feb 2026, the highest close was 58.5% on 7 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 19 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 14.5% on 11 Apr 2025. $749.26K traded over the market's life.
207 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 22, 12:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 381 points, 6 Feb 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2025 | 49.0% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 56.88K |
| Royal Signal FAC0 | Yes | 17.39K |
| dopodhd1 | Yes | 11.16K |
This market will resolve based on federal government current expenditures as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). This market will resolve to the amount federal government current expenditures decrease by between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The difference will be calculated as the Q4 2024 value minus the Q4 2025 value. The figures will be based on the initial Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The figures will be based on the Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 values as reported by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as soon as the data for Q4 2025 becomes available, regardless of whether later revisions are made. This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-much-spending-will-elon-and-doge-cut-in-2025
| Keen Oracle 60E1 | Yes | 9.8K |
| SamCrosling | Yes | 8.69K |
| wnine | Yes | 6.98K |
| FastEddie | No | 2K |
| randomtree | Yes | 1.89K |
| realUnibro | Yes | 1.7K |
| GHWOODLLC | Yes | 1.66K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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