Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 24 Sep 2025, the highest close was 12.5% on 3 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 1.7% on 4 Sep 2025. $2.75K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 25, 8:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 24 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 12.5% |
| 24 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.16K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 78 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 4.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate wins the 2025 special election for Arizona's 7th Congressional District to replace former Representative Raúl Grijalva. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a runoff, this market's resolution will be based on the runoff's outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arizona-house-special-election
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