Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.8%. Yes opened at 52% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 119 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 22 Jan 2026, the highest close was 56.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 21 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 39% on 12 Oct 2025. $53.19K traded over the market's life.
59 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 24, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 22 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 52.0% |
| 22 Jan 2026 | 3.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Severe-Troop | Yes | 3.58K |
| Kashmir | Yes | 907.85 |
| Untried-Soldier | Yes | 625 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-nominations
| Yes |
| 469.58 |
| wibba | Yes | 460.39 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 248 |
| elmorrogallo | Yes | 236.83 |
| greenbeat | Yes | 203.94 |
| pbeaz | Yes | 198.07 |
| zabrauni | Yes | 193.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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