Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 6 Dec 2023. Before it settled, the high was 41% on 10 Dec 2023 and the low 13.5% on 7 Jan 2024. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 15% on 11 Dec 2023. $36.88K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 3:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 39 points · 6 Dec 2023 – 13 Jan 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2023 | 34.5% |
| 13 Jan 2024 | 16.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Steven12 | No | 0.09 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
The 2024 Taiwanese general election is scheduled to take place on January 13, 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, 民進黨) wins a majority in the Legislative Yuan in the upcoming 2024 Taiwanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, winning a majority means one party or coalition wins 57 or more seats out of the 113 in the Legislative Yuan. If the result of this election isn't known by October 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Taiwan (e.g. https://web.cec.gov.tw/english/cms/le), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-dpp-win-a-majority-in-the-2024-taiwanese-general-election
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