Analytics
Resolved No on 11 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 71% on 2 May 2026 and the low 35% on 11 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 71% on 2 May 2026. $1.2K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 12, 4:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 1 May 2026 – 11 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 51.5% |
| 11 May 2026 | 35.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.13K |
| Enchanted-Uniform | Yes | 624.56 |
| Unfortunate-Particle | Yes | 214.94 |
| georgebrownxx | Yes | 100 |
| Optimal-Fleck | Yes | 88.28 |
| melik00 | Yes | 15.74 |
| HenriIV | Yes | 12 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the predominant color of the tie worn by Donald Trump during his first public appearance during which he wears a tie on the specified date (ET). The color will be determined based solely on the first publicly available photo or video of the appearance. Reporting of the tie color without photos or videos will not be considered. Subsequent publication of other photos or videos, including those taken earlier, will not affect the resolution. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date, does not wear a tie, or if it is a color not listed among the strike options, the market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/donald-trump-tie-color-on-may-11
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