Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 33.5%. Yes opened at 64% on 9 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 9 Jun 2026 to 15 Jun 2026, the highest close was 72.5% on 14 Jun 2026 and the lowest 64% on 9 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 66.5% on 15 Jun 2026. $1.04K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 9:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 9 Jun 2026 – 15 Jun 2026, chart shows 60%–75%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jun 2026 | 64.0% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 66.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 443.39 |
| Cheap-Ceiling | Yes | 177.57 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 150 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the predominant color of the tie worn by Donald Trump at the UFC Freedom 250 event, currently scheduled for June 14, 2026. The color will be determined based solely on the first publicly available photo or video of the appearance. Reporting of the tie color without photos or videos will not be considered. Subsequent publication of other photos or videos, including those taken earlier, will not affect the resolution. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not wear a tie, or if it is a color not listed among the strike options, or if the event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by June 30, 2026, the market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| Jarvis5 | Yes | 72.47 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 46.22 |
| Jamieeee | Yes | 28.71 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 20 |
| Nikhil27 | Yes | 10.71 |
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