
Resolved Yes on 11 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 23.4%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 11 May 2026, the highest close was 50% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 10 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 1.9% on 10 May 2026. $2.49K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 12, 4:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 1 May 2026 – 11 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 May 2026 | 23.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 606.88 |
| itsjustcheddar | No | 100 |
| warptrading | No | 87.71 |
| antwerpen | No | 76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the predominant color of the tie worn by Donald Trump during his first public appearance during which he wears a tie on the specified date (ET). The color will be determined based solely on the first publicly available photo or video of the appearance. Reporting of the tie color without photos or videos will not be considered. Subsequent publication of other photos or videos, including those taken earlier, will not affect the resolution. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date, does not wear a tie, or if it is a color not listed among the strike options, the market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| hesure | No | 50 |
| philwa | No | 6.69 |
| Coral Beacon 7E5B | No | 6 |
| wwder | No | 5 |
| AtlasCurtis | No | 3.03 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/donald-trump-tie-color-on-may-10
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page