Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 53%. Yes opened at 46% on 30 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 2 Jul 2026 and the lowest 7% on 23 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 25% on 7 Jul 2026. $165.23 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 46.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 47.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-publicly-insult-by-july-31-20260626210612709
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