Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.4%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 41% on 30 Apr 2026 and the low 3.6% on 4 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 4.5% on 3 May 2026. $2.19K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 1:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 6 points · 29 Apr 2026 – 4 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2026 | 38.5% |
| 4 May 2026 | 3.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 300 |
| Nifty-Rod | Yes | 244.96 |
| HornyBibi | Yes | 101 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| Modern-Nondisclosure-Arthur | Yes | 35.41 |
| IAM. | Yes | 30.29 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| dij1 | Yes | 14.71 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 8.86 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-dance-on
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