Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 18 Nov 2022. Before it settled, across the 591 daily closes on record from 18 Nov 2022 to 18 Jul 2024 (18 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.9% on 17 Jul 2024 and the lowest 33% on 16 Dec 2022. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 37% on 13 Dec 2022. $6.55M traded over the market's life.
217 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 18, 10:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 591 points, 18 Nov 2022 – 18 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Nov 2022 | 50.0% |
| 18 Jul 2024 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid Falcon F344 | No | 2.4M |
| Grim-Download | No | 103.2K |
| RWCS | No | 54.89K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination
| user5 | No | 27.44K |
| Pastel-Collector | Yes | 20.85K |
| Ivory Summit 79EC | No | 15.18K |
| Rude-Weather | No | 15.18K |
| Boring-Outfit | Yes | 12.22K |
| asc | No | 10.74K |
| Komal | No | 8.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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