Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 39% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 39% on 3 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 2.1% on 4 Dec 2025. $10.56K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 31 points · 3 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 39.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | Yes | 1.35K |
| heykox | Yes | 897.44 |
| 8Eotx5qJmuUVd | Yes | 766.05 |
| tailevent | Yes | 589.69 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 367 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 247 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 190 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 139.73 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 132.86 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 91.12 |
