Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 10 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 312 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2025 to 17 Dec 2025, the highest close was 7.5% on 28 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Dec 2025. $69.87K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 17, 12:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 312 points, 10 Feb 2025 – 17 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2025 | 5.5% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Keen Oracle 60E1 | Yes | 5.7K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.13K |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-doge-balance-the-budget-in-2025
| Bruised-Subway | Yes | 551.52 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 323 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 282 |
| NOdie | Yes | 200 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 190 |
| Bold Atlas 5779 | Yes | 183.7 |
| cereve | Yes | 166.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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