Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 25, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$39.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 25, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 25 Jan 2026, the highest close was 73.5% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 25 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 68 points down, to 1.7% on 25 Jan 2026. $39.59K traded over the market's life.

44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 27, 12:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Jan 2026	44.5%
25 Jan 2026	1.7%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
eraaa	Yes	1.12K
Insidious-Helicopter	Yes	485.96
insightforge	Yes	280.7
Rei96	Yes	219.67

10 of 44 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market refers to the Diplo's Run Club race at Margaret T. Hance Park currently scheduled for January 24, 2026 (see: https://diplosrunclub.com/phoenix). If Diplo completes the race in under the listed time this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is permanently canceled or otherwise has not been completed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Diplo's official race time based on the BibTag System used for the event and published by Diplo's Run Club. Information on Diplo's past workouts can be found here: https://www.strava.com/athletes/25852638 Recent run times: Philly - 3.1 miles / 21:18 / pace: 6:52 Seattle - 3.1 miles / 22:21 / pace: 7:12 San Francisco - 2.88 miles / 19:27 / pace: 6:45 LA - 3.1 miles / 26:55 / pace: 8:40