Analytics
Yes is at 5.1%, down 28 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
Across the 93 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54% on 17 Aug 2026 and the lowest 4% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%; a month before, 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 23.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
Denny Hamlin ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 Champion”. Kyle Larson leads at 89.3%; Chase Briscoe is at 2.8%.
$163 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $25.72K since listing. The order book holds $1.99K, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 455 trades, $3.61K bought Yes and $3.43K bought No; the largest was a $1.15K buy of No at 49.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Prickly-Eyrie with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Lukasburner with 2.3K. Ten wallets hold 92.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 10 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 93 points, 25 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 33.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lukasburner | No | 2.29K |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 1.4K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.32K |
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by NASCAR to determine the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on the rules of NASCAR (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NASCAR.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nascar-cup-series-2026-champion-20260722193936777
| Swift Maven 1848 |
| Yes |
| 873.76 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 674.86 |
| pengu-n | Yes | 228.82 |
| sweetj | Yes | 200 |
| oliman2 | Yes | 130 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 121 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 99.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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