Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 40% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 4 Dec 2025, the highest close was 43.5% on 28 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 5% on 3 Dec 2025. $40.87K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 5, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 4 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 40.0% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.46K |
| limosine | Yes | 10.18K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 932.9 |
| MyLige | Yes | 666 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The second iteration of Nof1's Alpha Arena AI trading competition, Alpha Arena Season 1.5, launched on November 19, 2025. This market will resolve according to the AI model listed below that shows the highest account value on the NOF1.ai leaderboard (https://nof1.ai/leaderboard) when the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition concludes. Results from the leaderboard displayed on https://nof1.ai/leaderboard, showing the total account value for each model, will be used to resolve this market. Any AI model whose total account value equals zero before the check time will be considered eliminated and may resolve “No” immediately. If two or more models are tied for the highest account value at the time of resolution, the tiebreaker will be determined first by the higher Win Rate. If a tie still remains, resolution will be based on the alphabetical order of the models’ company names as listed. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard becomes available and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If the leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable, or if the competition does not finish, this market will resolve based on the latest reliable reports available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/alpha-arena-season-1pt5-ai-trading-competition-winner
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 409.5 |
| SKT111 | Yes | 270 |
| WhaleKiller | Yes | 64 |
| Conan3 | Yes | 61.31 |
| axiol | Yes | 41.78 |
| shine | Yes | 30.01 |
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