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Resolved Yes on 14 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50% on 11 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.7% on 10 Jan 2026 and the low 50% on 11 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 86.5% on 12 Dec 2025. $118.65K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 15, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 11 Dec 2025 – 14 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 37.68K |
| pepii | No | 27.41K |
| kandinsky | No | 2K |
| 738925 | No | 1.2K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record. Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2025-december-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
| Glamorous-Awe | No | 334 |
| Elcaroeht | No | 289.26 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
| cicada009 | No | 142.86 |
| Impractical-Solvency | No | 100 |
| Fickle-Kayak | No | 50.56 |
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