Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

Resolved

Yes, settled May 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$74.5K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

May 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 9 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 91.1%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 9 May 2026, the highest close was 91.1% on 9 May 2026 and the lowest 44.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 60.5% on 23 Apr 2026. $74.55K traded over the market's life.

44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 10, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 9 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Apr 2026	44.5%
9 May 2026	91.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	19.66K
SunlineTicker	No	4.67K
HustlaGenius	No	4.11K

10 of 44 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).