Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43% on 21 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 4 Feb 2026, the highest close was 43% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 8.5% on 27 Jan 2026. $47.7K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 5, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 4 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 43.0% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ponzisseurr | Yes | 1.59K |
| theonereignsF8 | Yes | 1K |
| radbet | Yes | 899.64 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
X announced a $1 Million grand prize for its One Million Dollar Article contest (see: https://x.com/XCreators/status/2012306731867717852). The prize will go to the top article for the period of January 16 - January 28, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Dan Koe (@thedankoe) is officially confirmed to have won this $1 Million prize by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements from Dan Koe that he has won the prize will not alone be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Dan Koe winning any additional or sub-prize other than the announced $1 million dollar prize will not count. If it is confirmed that another X user is the winner of this prize, this market will resolve to “No”. If no winner is officially confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from official X sources, including from @Xcreators, other X team accounts, or Elon Musk; however, a consensus of credible information on the winner of this prize may also be used. Note: The terms of this prize may be seen at https://legal.x.com/en/articles-promotion-terms
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-dan-koe-win-the-x-1m-article-prize-884
| MPIL | Yes | 200 |
| Handy-Premise | Yes | 118.66 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 80 |
| JorshAsiveda | Yes | 63.89 |
| Swift Harbor 71B3 | Yes | 59.59 |
| Red-Tennis | Yes | 59.45 |
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