Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 61% on 11 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 44.5% on 12 Mar 2026. $1.84M traded over the market's life.
282 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 1 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 57.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dhadad01 | Yes | 14.47K |
| Albert 1953 | Yes | 12.27K |
| Clever-Competence | Yes | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or below the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march
| Yes |
| 10K |
| serjantov1 | Yes | 6.53K |
| chickengambler | Yes | 4.52K |
| Rectangular-Audit | Yes | 4.25K |
| zerc45 | Yes | 4.2K |
| AnonymousUsername | Yes | 3.28K |
| R3v3 | Yes | 3.19K |
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