Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 50%. Yes opened at 97.5% on 2 Feb 2024. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 2 Feb 2024 to 14 Mar 2024, the highest close was 97.5% on 2 Feb 2024 and the lowest 49.5% on 24 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 48 points down, to 49.5% on 24 Feb 2024. $500 traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 14, 4:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 2 Feb 2024 – 14 Mar 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2024 | 97.5% |
| 14 Mar 2024 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| whereami | Yes | 0 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The CA House Primary is scheduled for March 5, 2024, in which the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Courtney Najera fails to move onto the CA-30 general election from the primary. If she advances to the CA-30 general election from the primary, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from California, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-courtney-najera-lose-ca-30-primary
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
