Will Conservatives lead on April 4?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$13.3K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 4, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6% on 29 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 29 Mar 2025 to 4 Apr 2025, the highest close was 6% on 29 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Apr 2025. $13.29K traded over the market's life.

4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 5, 4:30 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 29 Mar 2025 – 4 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Mar 2025	6.0%
4 Apr 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.47K
Keen Summit 3949	Yes	900
azadam	Yes	170.67
Siziriv	Yes	6.41

4 of 4 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the CBCNews Polling Average margin between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines located on the line graph at https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada. Changes in the methodology by which CBCNews calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the CBCNews Polling Average margin data between the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party is not available as of April 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, the last published data will be used. If CBCNews polling becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published data.