Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 31% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 53.5% on 18 Mar 2026 and the low 0.1% on 22 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 53.5% on 18 Mar 2026.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 22, 8:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 22 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 31.0% |
| 22 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MartySupreme123 | Yes | 2K |
| steamrolling | Yes | 2K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.24K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 300 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 160 |
| pabss | Yes | 100.73 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
| daroghi | Yes | 30 |
| paspor | Yes | 23.46 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of March during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in March 2026 is finalized. If the final day in March 2026 has not been finalized by April 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in March which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-march
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