Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 14% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 100% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 14% on 5 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 80.5% on 7 Feb 2026. $115.02K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 14.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.77K |
| GM2bot | No | 200 |
| bjprolo | No | 60 |
| Remojadordbrosh | No | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "No release by February 28" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is not made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Anthropic's Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g., Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-on
| Capital-Root | No | 55.56 |
| winner541214 | No | 52.63 |
| RidelFishing | No | 50.01 |
| t189 | No | 50 |
| Cobalt Scout 8568 | No | 49 |
| Tart-Professional | No | 46.51 |
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