Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 10.9% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 27 Feb 2026, the highest close was 10.9% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 23 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.3 points down, to 2.6% on 6 Feb 2026. $16.7K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 28, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 27 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 10.9% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.77K |
| 2d0rmeai | Yes | 1.4K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 232 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 209.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "No release by February 28" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is not made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Anthropic's Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g., Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-on
| HRHD | Yes | 202.5 |
| carlosrgzm | Yes | 202.25 |
| asdkjlh | Yes | 199.99 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 147.32 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 133.45 |
| Furp | Yes | 100 |
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