Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 2 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Sep 2026 to 24 Sep 2026, the highest close was 26.1% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 17 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 1.5% on 15 Sep 2026. $953.24 traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 24 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 22.5% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 1.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 361.52 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| a5533 | Yes | 36.58 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-hampshire-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 20.32 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| Georgette98 | Yes | 0.03 |
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