Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.7%. Yes opened at 3.3% on 11 Oct 2023. Before it settled, across the 83 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2023 to 1 Jan 2024, the highest close was 4.4% on 28 Oct 2023 and the lowest 0.4% on 26 Dec 2023. $100.17K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 7:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 83 points, 11 Oct 2023 – 1 Jan 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2023 | 3.3% |
| 1 Jan 2024 | 1.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Habweg | Yes | 10K |
| BlumpkinSpiceLatte | Yes | 1.24K |
| Akhil546u | Yes | 594 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the People's Republic of China (PRC) commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by the PRC, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-in-2023
| Yes |
| 301.57 |
| Rapid Pioneer 757C | Yes | 20 |
| furi | Yes | 16.8 |
| James8888 | No | 5.16 |
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