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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes

2.1%

No

97.9%

Yes costs 2.1¢No costs 97.9¢

24h Volume

$29.1K

Total volume

$45.1M

Liquidity

$418.9K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Topic roomChina–Taiwan

TradesThe most recent trades, newest first.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
2900	sell	No	97.8%	10	Oct 29, 2:28 AM UTC
FabianCholmondeley	buy	No	98.0%	21.43	Oct 29, 2:24 AM UTC
kmwodmmns	buy	No	98.0%	20.41	Oct 29, 2:14 AM UTC
djioscnsjzmv	buy	No	98.0%	22.45	Oct 29, 2:02 AM UTC
MaximilianCrowhurst	buy	No	98.0%	20.41	Oct 29, 1:52 AM UTC
whookonws	buy	Yes	2.2%	182.39	Oct 29, 1:50 AM UTC
GideonStormrider	buy	No	98.0%	24.49	Oct 29, 1:44 AM UTC
CaiusHawkwind	buy	No	98.0%	21.43	Oct 29, 1:41 AM UTC
bhmbgvfsdvcvb	buy	No	98.0%	24.49	Oct 29, 1:24 AM UTC
ALLENIVSEN	buy	No	98.0%	22.45	Oct 29, 1:18 AM UTC
MarcellusThorneEverhart	buy	No	98.0%	20.41	Oct 29, 1:12 AM UTC
31000	sell	No	97.9%	10	Oct 29, 1:11 AM UTC
gyhan	buy	No	98.0%	126	Oct 29, 1:10 AM UTC
3300	sell	No	97.9%	10	Oct 29, 1:04 AM UTC
BeaumontSebastianQuillan	buy	No	98.0%	22.45	Oct 29, 12:59 AM UTC
00037s	sell	No	97.9%	10	Oct 29, 12:44 AM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	0.01	Oct 28, 11:57 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	353.6	Oct 28, 11:56 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:55 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:55 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:55 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:55 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:54 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:54 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	sell	No	97.8%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:54 PM UTC
Jade Oracle 1905	buy	No	98.0%	404.11	Oct 28, 11:54 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	0.04	Oct 28, 11:53 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:53 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:53 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	sell	No	97.8%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Rapid Tide C41D	buy	No	98.0%	101.02	Oct 28, 11:52 PM UTC
Amber Lynx 5F5D	sell	No	97.9%	515.25	Oct 28, 11:48 PM UTC
Amber Lynx 5F5D	buy	No	98.0%	515.26	Oct 28, 11:48 PM UTC
Amber Lynx 5F5D	sell	No	97.9%	1.01K	Oct 28, 11:32 PM UTC
Amber Lynx 5F5D	buy	No	98.0%	1.01K	Oct 28, 11:31 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	97.9%	20.02	Oct 28, 11:15 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	98.0%	20.02	Oct 28, 11:14 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	97.9%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:31 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	98.0%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	97.9%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:29 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	buy	No	98.0%	20.02	Oct 28, 10:28 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	sell	No	97.9%	10.01	Oct 28, 10:15 PM UTC
Amber Tide 5488	buy	No	98.0%	10.01	Oct 28, 10:14 PM UTC
purplegatto	buy	Yes	2.1%	30	Oct 28, 9:50 PM UTC
Solar Orbit F36C	sell	No	97.9%	20.02	Oct 28, 9:32 PM UTC

60 of the 500 most recent trades.Subscribers can pull the full trade history where Vultax has archived it.

Topic room

Read this market in context

China–Taiwan oddsWill China invade Taiwan?

What to watch in China–Taiwan

Large-scale PLA exercises around Taiwan and their stated purpose
US arms sales, transit operations and official statements on Taiwan
Leadership meetings between Washington and Beijing

Research behind the numbers

How well Polymarket prices match outcomes