Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$44.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 11 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 11 Dec 2025 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 2.5% on 11 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Jan 2026. $44.63K traded over the market's life.

42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 8:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 11 Dec 2025 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Dec 2025	2.5%
19 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	23.09K
bestiadincarpati	Yes	4K
Evador	Yes	2.5K
Kindly-Poison	Yes	1.6K

10 of 42 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.