Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 34% on 18 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2024 to 31 Dec 2024, the highest close was 34.5% on 21 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 34.5% on 21 Dec 2024. $242.63K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 8:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 18 Dec 2024 – 31 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2024 | 34.0% |
| 31 Dec 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 69.69K |
| Johnix | Yes | 847.6 |
| Alexander123456789 | Yes | 715.72 |
| windowsxpfan | Yes | 522.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source: https://lmarena.ai/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/top-ai-model-on-december-31
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| nonamethere | Yes | 507.59 |
| MaxPosi23 | Yes | 500 |
| Solo444 | Yes | 331.8 |
| Dagoah | Yes | 331 |
| perfa01 | Yes | 197.21 |
| SSander | Yes | 159.19 |
