Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤6.5%?

Resolved

Yes, settled Feb 6, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$461

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Feb 6, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 6 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 48%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 6 Feb 2026, the highest close was 48% on 6 Feb 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 48% on 6 Feb 2026. $460.88 traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 7, 4:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 6 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Jan 2026	33.5%
6 Feb 2026	48.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	No	200
t189	No	50
bjprolo	No	50
triklozoid	No	30

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for January 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. The next data release is scheduled for February 6, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.