Analytics
Yes is at 5%, down 15 points from 19.5% when the market opened on 25 Jul 2026.
Across the 95 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 19.5% on 25 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2% on 14 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.9%; a month before, 4.9%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 7.3% on 26 Jul 2026.
$26.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.44K since listing. The order book holds $772.96, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 113 trades, $112.68 bought Yes and $1.9K bought No; the largest was a $1.38K buy of No at 81.4¢.
The largest Yes position is CryptoAddict with 426 shares; the largest No position is 0xzipper with 719. Ten wallets hold 90% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 95 points, 25 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2026 | 19.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xzipper | No | 719.2 |
| Opulent-Communicant | No | 555.94 |
| CryptoAddict | Yes | 425.99 |
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries. Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock. Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-california-experience-a-7pt0-or-above-magnitude-earthquake-in-2026-20260723232901145
| ahhuat8 |
| Yes |
| 396.89 |
| flawfence | No | 258.89 |
| makanmakan | Yes | 150.11 |
| commanderkim | Yes | 150 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 65.42 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 50 |
| Tkto | Yes | 45.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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