Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 16 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 16 Jul 2026 to 9 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.3% on 20 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 5.5% on 23 Jul 2026. $408.16 traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 5:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 16 Jul 2026 – 9 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2026 | 38.5% |
| 9 Aug 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 201 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Hawaii, scheduled to take place on August 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. In the event that no primary election is held because the relevant party or state authorities determine that the party nominee for the relevant position will be chosen by a different method, this market will resolve in favor of the winner of such method. If, for any other reason, no 2026 Hawaii Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Hawaii Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hawaii-governor-republican-primary-winner-20260714201347549
| Yes |
| 40 |
| Misty Vector 314B | Yes | 11 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| spodkaposk | Yes | 3 |
| loki44444 | No | 0.01 |
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