Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 57%. Yes opened at 50% on 10 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 10 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 10 Feb 2026 and the lowest 31% on 20 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 31.5% on 11 Feb 2026. $2.34 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 3:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 10 Feb 2026 – 5 Mar 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | 43.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 57.29 |
| MrVent | Yes | 2.32 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the Brazilian unemployment rate reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the monthly Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) for the period of November 2025-January 2026 (quarter ending in January 2026). The resolution source for this market is the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) release (monthly dissemination), published by the IBGE every month at https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 5, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available release. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nov-jan-unemployment-rate-brazil
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