Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 62.6%. Yes opened at 47% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 3 Mar 2026, the highest close was 47% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 3% on 24 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 40 points up, to 43.6% on 1 Mar 2026. $742.41 traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 4:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 3 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 47.0% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 37.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 419.03 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 100 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (%) in the 4th quarter of 2025, as reported in the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on March 03, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025
| paspor | Yes | 49.59 |
| Humiliating-Inventor | Yes | 31.39 |
| Utter-Downgrade | Yes | 15 |
| v7H | Yes | 5.28 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| mdgc | Yes | 5 |
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