Will Black Sea ceasefire go into effect before May?

Resolved

No, settled May 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$62.2K

Resolved

Settled

May 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 27.5% on 2 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 23.5% on 20 Apr 2025. $62.22K traded over the market's life.

6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 8:20 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Apr 2025	27.5%
1 May 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
juboim	Yes	3.13
usieygueu	No	1.38
LEONIDOVITCH1983	No	0.02
aidentika	Yes	0.01

6 of 6 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On March 25, Minister of Defenсe of Ukraine Rustem Umerov announced an agreement to “cease the use of force, and to prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea." (see: https://x.com/rustem_umerov/status/1904549644463427740) This market will resolve to “Yes” if an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to suspend or end military actions on the Black Sea goes into effect by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means that a qualifying deal is actively implemented for any amount of time. This market's primary resolution source will be confirmation that the agreement is in effect by the governments of Ukraine and Russia, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming the deal is in effect may also be used.