Analytics
Yes is at 40.5%, down 2 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 2 Apr 2026.
Across the 188 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 13% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14%; a month before, 13%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 13.5% on 17 Aug 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?”.
$130.16 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $18.47, with a 77.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 50 shares; the largest No position is oliman2 with 55.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 188 points, 2 Apr 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | 42.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oliman2 | No | 55.26 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 50 |
| TitanusGojira | No | 40.27 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed nicotine pouch brand is bought or otherwise acquired by Big Tobacco between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Big Tobacco" is defined as any of the following corporations: Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco International, Imperial Brands, Altria, or China Tobacco. Any change of name of these companies will not affect the resolution of this market provided they remain major names in the tobacco industry. Any change in the name of the listed nicotine pouch brand will similarly not affect the resolution of this market. Any acquisition which gives Big Tobacco ownership of the rights to the nicotine pouch product will qualify even if Big Tobacco does not acquire the entire company, whether through a merger, asset purchase, or stock purchase. This market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-nicotine-pouch-brands-will-be-bought-by-big-tobacco
| wrongdirection |
| Yes |
| 12.75 |
| Fruitful-Exchange | Yes | 8 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | Yes | 7.92 |
| rx8549o867549 | Yes | 7.78 |
| qqqppp-l1 | Yes | 7.62 |
| 36ltjcx1aj6w | Yes | 1.47 |
| Lavincey | No | 1.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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