Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.4%. Yes opened at 76% on 14 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2025 to 16 Jan 2025, the highest close was 98.4% on 16 Jan 2025 and the lowest 76% on 14 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 94.5% on 15 Jan 2025. $32.87K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 6:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 14 Jan 2025 – 16 Jan 2025, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2025 | 76.0% |
| 16 Jan 2025 | 98.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| megagrim | Yes | 0.02 |
| Self-Assured-Benefit | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
President Joe Biden’s farewell address is scheduled to take place on January 15, 2025, 8:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Kamala" or "Harris" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Kamala" or "Harris" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Kamala Harris. If the event is cancelled or delayed beyond January 19, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the video of the speech, however the official transcript will be used to settle cases of ambiguity.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address
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