Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 18%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 21 Jun 2024 to 28 Jun 2024, the highest close was 82% on 28 Jun 2024 and the lowest 50% on 21 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 73.5% on 22 Jun 2024. $14.6K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 29, 7:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 21 Jun 2024 – 28 Jun 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jun 2024 | 50.0% |
| 28 Jun 2024 | 82.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Folks" three or more times at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Folks" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to people generally. The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-biden-say-during-the-debate
| Gravityfix | Yes | 0.03 |
| 090x | No | 0.03 |
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