Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 56.5%. Yes opened at 25% on 24 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2024 to 25 Jul 2024, the highest close was 43.5% on 25 Jul 2024 and the lowest 25% on 24 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 43.5% on 25 Jul 2024. $20.65K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 26, 3:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 24 Jul 2024 – 25 Jul 2024, chart shows 20%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2024 | 25.0% |
| 25 Jul 2024 | 43.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ProteinProsecco | Yes | 5.25K |
| samsupertaco | Yes | 150 |
| bogden | Yes | 136.24 |
| anthonyb3182 | Yes | 52.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Joe Biden is scheduled to give a speech Wednesday July 24, about his decision to end his reelection campaign. This market refers to anything Biden says during the first speech he gives addressing his decision to withdraw from the Presidential race. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Folks" three or more times. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If Biden does not give a speech addressing his decision to withdraw from the Presidential race by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Folks" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to people generally. The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech
| whowhatwhy | Yes | 30 |
| zombie32 | Yes | 23.81 |
| Numb-Task | Yes | 5 |
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