Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.4%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 6 Jun 2024. Before it settled, across the 229 daily closes on record from 6 Jun 2024 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 39.7% on 9 Dec 2024 and the lowest 1.3% on 27 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 39.7% on 9 Dec 2024. $1.4M traded over the market's life.
93 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 9:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 229 points, 6 Jun 2024 – 20 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jun 2024 | 8.5% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 2.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Outstanding-Split | Yes | 497.45K |
| fiddycents | Yes | 64.03K |
| MiloMilu | Yes | 3.78K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-biden-pardon
| cryptocake | Yes | 3.67K |
| nnnuyi | Yes | 1K |
| Boe-Jiden | Yes | 550 |
| Stylish-Building | Yes | 450.2 |
| PolyFox99 | Yes | 355.96 |
| BelugaBets | Yes | 333.33 |
| Kermitbets | Yes | 232.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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