Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 19% on 28 Jul 2023. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 28 Jul 2023 to 1 Sep 2023, the highest close was 19% on 28 Jul 2023 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Sep 2023. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 12.5% on 29 Jul 2023. $49.79K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 3:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 28 Jul 2023 – 1 Sep 2023, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2023 | 19.0% |
| 1 Sep 2023 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KmsDhar | Yes | 1.29K |
| Embarrassed-Safeguard | Yes | 886.49 |
| Arto | Yes | 763.62 |
| Bigfatwhale | Yes | 671.64 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if US President Joe Biden uses the word "alien" or "aliens" in any public, recorded way between July 27 and August 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", Biden MUST say "alien" or "aliens" in a video or audio statement. Any context in which "alien" or "aliens" is said will count - e.g. if Biden said "illegal aliens" this market would resolve to "Yes." References to aliens that do not include the word "alien" or "aliens" will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Written statements will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be any publicly available recorded or videoed statements by Biden (e.g. video of press conferences, candid videos, etc), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-biden-mention-aliens-by-august-31
| Serious-Escalator | Yes | 499.33 |
| Jack007 | Yes | 133.33 |
| Cortez-spider | Yes | 100.05 |
| AceBaby256 | Yes | 78.03 |
| Petr Hluze | Yes | 75.43 |
| leoleoleoleo | Yes | 28.53 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
