Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 27 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 7.5% on 27 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2024. $55.18K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 5:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2024 | 7.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pierceheaven | Yes | 907.5 |
| POZDNYAKOV | Yes | 626.72 |
| ER01MM | Yes | 428.57 |
| Pesky-Membership | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Belarus commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Ukraine between August 25, 2024 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official information from Belarus, Ukraine, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-belarus-invade-ukraine-before-october
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| ER02CB | Yes | 166.67 |
| Jjo-300 | Yes | 83.33 |
| fhgnrfbnbdh | Yes | 26.32 |
| BetMoore | Yes | 12.5 |
| Ant1genX | No | 0.07 |
| Stewarthjr | No | 0.03 |
