Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 21 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2024 to 10 Sep 2024, the highest close was 21.5% on 23 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 0.3% on 9 Sep 2024. $496K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 10, 6:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 21 Aug 2024 – 10 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | 8.5% |
| 10 Sep 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 242.8K |
| rousseauuu | Yes | 3.46K |
| iioooiii | Yes | 537 |
| Ivory Oracle 2B63 | Yes | 506 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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| Rapid Falcon CDAA | Yes | 497.13 |
| Amber Meteor 7312 | Yes | 313 |
| Bold Kestrel F29D | Yes | 310 |
| Bright Beacon 5740 | Yes | 296 |
| Elegancereborn | Yes | 221.8 |
| qrpenc | Yes | 200 |
